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ECB may delay its stimulus exit amid concerns on Greece’s deficit
The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.3706 as of 6:43am, GMT, with a bullish trendTammy Wally 
09 February 2010
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| EUR/USD | USD/JPY | GBP/USD | USD/CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | 1.3851(M) 1.3843(M) 1.3747(M) | 91.09(M) 90.93(M) 89.89(M) | 1.5775(M) 1.5730(M) 1.5672(M) | 1.0800(S) 1.0772(M) 1.0741(M) |
Support | 1.3685(M) 1.3585(M) 1.3535(M) | 88.90(M) 88.55(S) 88.25(M) | 1.5580(M) 1.5535(M) 1.5515(M) | 1.0647(M) 1.0619(M) 1.0521(M) |
The (ECB) European Central Bank may be forced to cancel the withdrawal of emergency lending measures for the time-being because it could inflame financial market concerns about Greece, Spain and Portugal various economist have stated. Investors are dumping Greece, Spanish and Portuguese assets as their governments struggle to rein in their budget deficits, making it more expensive for them to finance the debt. Should the ECB go ahead with its exit strategy by pulling its unlimited cash support for euro area, interest rates could rise and further undermine confidence in Europe’s economic recovery. Greece’s budget woes threaten to overshadow a summit of European Union leaders that compelled ECB President Jean Claude Trichet to shorten his trip to a Reserve Bank of Australia symposium in Sydney by one day. The EU meeting was called to lay the groundwork for a 10-year economic program to strengthen the region’s competitiveness. The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.3706 as of 6:43am, GMT, with a bullish trend.
The British pound continued its fall against the dollar on Monday as the UK currency bore the brunt of risk aversion selling triggered by jitters about the fiscal health of some euro zone countries. Investors are Worried about how euro zone states including Greece and Portugal will service their debts, including those denominated in sterling, which has been battered in recent weeks. A poll in the newspaper The Independent showing the opposition Conservative party's lead over the ruling Labour Party had fallen below 10 percentage points kept sterling on the back foot. This narrowing of the gap would increase the possibility of a hung parliament after the election that must be held by June, which would make it difficult for the new government to pass unpopular bills to strengthen the economy and repay debt. The GBP/USD is currently trading at $15640 as of 7:19am, GMT with a bullish trend.
The Dollar and the Yen both fell slightly on speculation European officials meeting this week will agree to assist Greece in tackling its deficit, reducing demand for the two currencies as a safe haven. The euro rallied from a near one-year low versus the JPY after a European Central Bank spokeswoman said President Jean Claude Trichet will leave a meeting in Sydney early to attend a European Union leaders’ summit. The yen fell for a third day against the greenback amid prospects Japanese companies sold the currency. “Investors may begin to think that a policy measure directed at Greece’s fiscal situation is potentially in the works,” said David Forrester, a currency economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore. The EUR/JPY is currently trading at 123.02 as of 7:43am, GMT, with a bullish trend.
Finotec Analysis Team
09 February 2010
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Today's Economic Events
Time  |
Event |
Currency/Country
|
Period | Previous | Forecast |
Significance
|
Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02-2010 23:50 | Machinery Orders (M-o-M) | Japan | Monthly | -11.3 |  | |||
| 09-02-2010 23:50 | Machinery Orders (Y-o-Y) | Japan | Yearly | -20.5 |  | |||
| 09-02-2010 23:50 | Domestic CGPI (M-o-M) | Japan | Monthly | 0.1 | | |||
| 09-02-2010 23:50 | Domestic CGPI (Y-o-Y) | Japan | Yearly | -3.9 | | |||
| 09-02-2010 23:30 | Westpac Consumer Confidence | Australia | 5.6 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 22:00 | ABC News Consumer Confidence Index | United States | -49 |  | ||||
| 09-02-2010 15:00 | Wholesale Sales (M-o-M) | United States | Monthly | 3.3 | | |||
| 09-02-2010 15:00 | Inventories (M-o-M) | United States | Monthly | 1.5 | | |||
| 09-02-2010 15:00 | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | United States | 48.8 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 15:00 | NIESR GDP Estimate | UK | 0.3 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 09:30 | Trade Balance | JPY/UK | -2.9 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 09:30 | Trade Balance - Non EU | JPY/UK | -3.03 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 09:30 | Visible Trade Balance | JPY/UK | -6.78 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 09:30 | Imports | JPY/UK | 36.21 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 09:30 | Exports | JPY/UK | 33.30 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 07:00 | Exports | €/Germany | 56.3 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 07:00 | Imports | €/Germany | 56.3 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 07:00 | Trade Balance | €/Germany | 17.4 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 07:00 | CPI (M-o-M) | Germany | Monthly | -0.6 | -0.6 | | -0.6 | |
| 09-02-2010 07:00 | CPI (Y-o-Y) | Germany | Yearly | 0.9 | 0.8 | | 0.8 | |
| 09-02-2010 07:00 | CPI - EU Harmonised (M-o-M) | Germany | Monthly | -0.7 | -0.7 | | -0.6 | |
| 09-02-2010 07:00 | CPI - EU Harmonised (Y-o-Y) | Germany | Yearly | 0.7 | 0.7 | | 0.8 | |
| 09-02-2010 07:00 | Current Account Balance - BoP | €/Germany | 18.1 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 07:00 | Capital Account Balance - BoP | €/Germany | 114 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 07:00 | Financial Account Balance - BoP | €/Germany | -20.88 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 00:30 | NAB Business Conditions | Australia | 10 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 00:30 | NAB Business Confidence | Australia | 8 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 00:01 | BRC Retail Sales Monitor | UK | 4.2 | | ||||
| 09-02-2010 00:01 | RICS House Price Balance | UK | 30 | |
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