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Daily Forex Analysis Updated 30-July-2007 22:19 GMT
Headlines: Japanese Yen Slips as U.S. Stocks Rally

Main news:

  • Gold Rebounds From 2-Week Low
  • Crude Oil Ends Choppy Trade Down but Above Lows

Market trend:

  EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF EUR/JPY EUR/GBP GOLD CRUDE OIL
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance 1.3915
1.3855
1.3765
120.50
120.00
119.55
2.0425
2.0355
2.0300
1.2165
1.2100
1.2045
164.20
163.95
163.25
0.6810
0.6795
0.6780
676.00
670.00
666.00
78.400
77.700
77.000
Support 1.3640
1.3610
1.3570
118.80
117.60
117.40
2.0185
2.0120
2.0095
1.1985
1.1960
1.1925
161.25
160.65
160.25
0.6735
0.6705
0.6680
660.00
656.00
651.00
76.000
74.900
73.200

Forex outlook:
The Japanese yen fell on Monday, reversing early gains, as U.S. stocks rallied at the
end of a volatile session, tempering fears of deteriorating credit markets .Concerns that turmoil in the U.S. sub prime mortgage sector have spilled over into the wider credit markets prompted traders to buy yen last week and earlier on Monday, closing
carry trades.

Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yielding currencies to buy higher-yielding assets, and the low-yielding yen has been the main beneficiary of a carry unwind.
"Trading in dollar-yen will be very much dictated by what happens with the stock markets this week," said Mark Meadows, a currency analyst at Tempus Consulting in Washington, D.C.

The yen earlier hit three-month highs of around 118.01 per dollar and 160.63 per Euro, according to Reuters data. But by afternoon in New York, the dollar traded
back up to 118.97 yen as stock indexes rallied.

Gains in U.S. stocks, though, had little impact on the euro. The European currency was up 0.5 percent against the dollar at $1.3694, while sterling was little changed at
$2.0246

Gold: rebounded from a two-week low in New York on Monday as the dollar weakened, but investors were nervous about taking new positions following recent losses in bullion and global equities markets. Traders said weaker share prices had forced investors to lighten positions in risky assets, including commodities, until
the situation in stock markets stabilized. "The weakness in global stock markets on concerns of a credit crunch continues, and this is probably a negative factor for gold," Dresdner Kleinwort said in a research note. "Rising crude oil prices failed to provide support for gold last Friday, and might again be overruled by investors shunning risky assets and flying to the safe havens of government bonds."
Gold Aug contract was trading around the levels of 664.7$ an ounce on 21:35 (GMT)


Crude Oil:U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Monday, but only after hitting a fresh 2007 intraday high above $77 a barrel before seesawing and bouncing off the day's low just above $76."It's going to be volatile trying to work higher," said Jim Ritterbusch, resident at Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.On New York Mercantile Exchange, September crude fell 19 cents, or 0.25 percent, to settle at $76.83 a barrel,
trading from $76.05 to $77.33. That intraday peak was the highest since Aug. 9, when prices reached $77.40.





Pool position:


Economic calendar:
Country Date Time (GMT) E Event Period Previous Forecast Significance
AU 31.07.2007 01:30 Building Approvals m/m Jun -5.6% 1.8% **
JP 31.07.2007 05:00 Housing Starts y/y Jun -10.7% -3.2% **
GER 31.07.2007 06:00 German Retail Sales m/m Jun -1.8% 1.0% **
GER 31.07.2007 06:00 German Retail Sales y/y Jun -3.7% -1.7% **
GER 31.07.2007 08:00 German Unemployment Rate Jul 9.1% 9.0% **
EZ 31.07.2007 09:00 Business Climate Jul 1.54 1.46 **
GB 31.07.2007 09:30 Consumer Confidence Jul -3.0 -4.0 **
GB 31.07.2007 10:00 CBI Distributive Trades Realized Jul 17 15 **
US 31.07.2007 11:45 ICSC Chain Weekly 1.9% NA ***
US 31.07.2007 12:30 Core PCE Price Index m/m Jun 0.5% NA **
US 31.07.2007 12:30 Core PCE Price Index y/y Jun 2.3% NA **
CA 31.07.2007 12:30 GDP m/m May 0.3% 0.4% ****
US 31.07.2007 12:30 Core PCE Price Index m/m Jun 0.1% 0.2% ***
US 31.07.2007 12:30 Core PCE Price Index y/y Jun 1.9% NA ***
US 31.07.2007 12:55 red book Weekly 0.5% NA *
US 31.07.2007 13:45 Chicago PMI Jul 60.2 58.0 ***
US 31.07.2007 14:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 103.9 105.0 **
US 31.07.2007 23:30 Manufacturing PMI Jul 53.1 NA **

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