Event risk in Switzerland will be relatively high over the course of the week. First, producer and import prices are anticipated to build mildly, signaling that consumer price growth should remain positive. Next, the employment level for the first quarter will likely reflect tightness in the labor market, which has been a major driver of domestic demand and Swiss growth in general. The following day, the trade balance and KOF leading indicator will be released. The KOF leading indicator is anticipated to be quite encouraging given the resilience of consumption and trade, and with the SNB stating their desire to continue normalizing rates, a strong KOF figure may bring traders to price in a hike on June 14.

The buying point of USD/CHF is at 1.2244; triggered by a reversal of a downtrend and failure to form a lower support then the previous support 1.2213 and swing upwards with changing direction of the minor trend.


Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% is the take profit line at 1.2300
Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% is the Stop Loss at 1.2178

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the crossing of the two moving averages below the zero line, the shorter term moving average is faster than the long term and is pointing upwards with high volume. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI, we can determine that it is in an uptrend and is above the oversold area which is the 30% line.

The zero line of the Momentum is very important to understand the strength of the market and as we see on the graph; it bounce on the zero line and moves upwards. We should always look at the trend line; and in this example it breaks the downtrend line upwards. For the William %R oscillator we have to concentrate at -80% lines and -20% lines and in this example we can determine that the market bounce on -80% lines which means a good buying signal.
About stochastic we can determine strength of the buyers, and it gives us a very good signal about the demand of the market.

Most of the indicators show us the strength of US dollar against the CHF and the continuation of an uptrend.

By Finotec’s professional analyst,
Tony B.

dealingdesk@finotec.com