The dollar traded near the strongest in more than two weeks against the Euro on speculation the world's biggest economy can withstand rising mortgage defaults. The Euro was little changed after a report today showed German business confidence declined for a second month in July, as expected. The IFO institute's sentiment index, based on responses from 7,000 executives, dropped to 106.4 from 107 in June, matching the median forecast of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “The Euro may fall to $1.3680 and 165 yen today”, said Divyang Shah,currency startegist from big bank in London

The selling point is at the break level of 1.3700 or at failure to break the resistance level of 1.3750

Take profit is positioned at the support level 1.3650
Second target of the position is at 1.3630 at Fibonacci retrenchment 38.3%.

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the crossing of the two moving averages below the zero line pointing downwards. For the momentum oscillator we have to concentrate at the zero line and in this example break the zero line downwards. Stochastic is giving us a bearish signal. Most of the indicators show us the weakness of the US dollar against the Japanese Yen and the continuation of a downtrend.

* The following analysis is for information only; Finotec is not responsible for any
decisions or misinterpretations based on the given text.

dealingdesk@finotec.com