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Daily Forex Analysis Updated 17-May-2007 23:19 GMT
Headlines: The Dollar Rally Against the Majors

Main news:

  • The Yen Drop as GDP Slows
  • Oil Rise, Gold Drops

Market trend:

  EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF EUR/JPY EUR/GBP GOLD CRUDE OIL
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance 1.3625
1.3575
1.3505
122.20
122.00
121.65
1.9910
1.9880
1.9790
1.2355
1.2350
1.2285
164.55
164.20
163.90
0.6930
0.6845
0.6845
675.50
670.00
660.00
68.000
66.100
65.000
Support 1.3475
1.3465
1.3455
120.55
120.30
119.95
1.9735
1.9710
1.9690
1.2225
1.2185
1.2125
163.40
163.10
162.95
0.6820
0.6800
0.6780
654.50
643.00
635.90
63.400
62.050
61.000

Forex outlook:
The U.S dollar rally against the majors over a jobless benefits claims drop to a four month low. The strong data streaming from the U.S in the last tow days showed industrial production advanced more than economists forecast, jobless claims drop and housing starts unexpectedly gained last month, catalyzed a bullish trend for the dollar. ``The job market is holding up pretty well, calming down some fears about the weakness of the economy,'' said Stephen Malyon, a currency strategist at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. ``It's not surprising the dollar is strengthening here.'' The dollar rose 0.4 percent to 121.31 yen at 2:11 p.m. in New York and earlier touched 121.35, the highest since Feb. 23. The U.S. currency also gained 0.1 percent to $1.3496 per Euro.

The Japanese currency fell against the majors after the Cabinet Office in Tokyo said gross domestic product grew at an annual 2.4 percent rate in the first quarter, slowing from a revised 5 percent in the fourth quarter. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast 2.7 percent growth. ``The data reinforced market participants' appetite for selling the yen,'' said Derek Halpenny, a senior currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. ``The justification for a rate increase anytime soon will be difficult to present to the market. This realization will likely encourage further yen selling.'' The yen traded around 120.30 against the dollar, 163.70 against the Euro and to 239.50 Sterling.

Gold: the precious metal fall to the lowest in eight weeks was triggered by a gain in the dollar against major currencies, reducing demand from some investors who buy the metal as a hedge against a weakening U.S. currency. Inflation ``isn't strong enough to offset the stronger dollar,'' said Nick Moore, an analyst at ABN Amro Holding NV in London. ``The whole commodity complex is weak.'' Gold futures for June delivery fell $4.30, or 0.7 percent, to $657.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since March 19. The price has dropped 2.2 percent this week. The bearish sentiment of the gold is also influence by an easing concern about inflation.

Crude Oil: The black gold rally over speculation that the U.S drivers’ season demand will precede the gasoline supplies due to refineries shutting units unexpectedly. ``Gasoline inventories rose a bit but aren't in great shape,'' said Eugene X. Hodge, a managing director at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. in Boston, who manages a $4.3 billion oil and gas company bond portfolio. ``It's a great time to be in the refining business. Refiners have been running full out for a long time so things break down.'' Crude oil for June delivery rose $2.26, or 3.6 percent, to $64.81 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $64.90,

Pool position:


Economic calendar:
Country Date Time (GMT) E Event Period Previous Forecast Significance
GER 18.05.2007 06:00 German PPI m/m Apr 0.3% 0.3% **
GB 18.05.2007 08:30 Retail Sales m/m Apr 0.3% 0.5% ***
CA 18.05.2007 12:30 Core Retail Sales m/m Mar 1.0% 0.8% ***
US 18.05.2007 14:00 Consumer Sentiment May 87.1 86.5 ***

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Forex Daily 18.05.2007
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