SEB MERCHANT BANKING

NZD/USD: "Holding the April high. Yesterday's print is obviously bearish but nevertheless "synthetic" given RBNZ involvement, and despite intervention the pair holds the April highs well. If making it back above US$0.7525 there are reasons to believe the market is sturdy enough to test the RBNZ strength through a US$0.7585 move."

EUR/USD: "Very little action was seen yesterday as the pair spent the entire session consolidating the losses from last week. The sideways pattern should be labeled continuation pattern, thus a downside break has the highest probability."

USD/JPY: "The pair continues to gather strength within the 121.50/85 yen-range. We continue to advocate that a break to the upside soon will take place, passing the yearly high, 122.20. We expect bids to remain firm in the mid 121's."

EUR/CHF: "The so far marginal but nevertheless violation of 1.6532 is a strong indication of a completed bull flag and new highs in the making. Go long the pair with a stop below 1.6490, target in the mid 1.66's"

UBS

The break of EUR/USD support in the 1.3371 to 1.3368 area reinforces the short-term bear trend developing from the 1.3683 late-April high, and leaves little support till the 1.3288 March 30 reaction low. Meanwhile, resistance is located around Friday's high at 1.3436.

USD/CHF's sharp push from last week's 1.2148 low has moved through the 1.2357 notable reaction high from March 9. Penetration there clears the way for a run at 1.2438, the February 22 reaction high and the 0.764 retracement of the 1.2575-1.1994 decline.

Friday's break of the 1.9677 May 21 low in GBP/USD opens the door toward the 1.9591 April 9 low. Friday's late-reaction high around 1.9708 marks initial resistance.

USD/JPY 122.20/38 resistance. After holding support at the bottom of congestion around 120.67, the resuming USD/JPY bull trend is taking aim at the old 122.15 trend high from June 1. Nearby is the 122.20 high from January 29, followed by 122.38, the 0.618 retracement of the 135.18-101.67 big decline.

Our model reading for AUD/USD remains positive, a sign that the recovery from last week's 0.8163 low has further potential. The recent push above resistance at the 0.8396 April 18 trend high clears the way towards 0.8500 psychological resistance. Meanwhile, near term support is located at Friday's 0.8366 reaction low.

USD/CAD remains heavy with little support till 1.0496. There the large decline from the 1.4005 May 2004 high would equal the distance travelled in the 1.6190-1.2681 preceding decline. Initial resistance is around 1.0715, a reaction high from Friday.

EUR/JPY retains bearish bias. EUR/JPY's break of support at 162.95 clears the way for a run at the 161.08 May 11 low. Only a move above the 162.92 reaction high from June 7 would offset downward pressures in the short run. EUR/GBP's recent decline ran out of steam after pushing to within seven pips of the early-April 0.6747 range bottom. But only a move above 0.6819 (0.618 of 0.6858-0.6755) would shift focus to the 0.6858 to 0.6868 range top.


EUR/CHF model reading has turned from neutral to positive and a sustained push above the 1.6553 Monday's high would give us price proof of a resuming bull trend. Meanwhile, the May 11 low at 1.6414 marks the next key support.