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TECHNICAL RESEARCH LIMITED
NZD/USD: "New Zealand dollar reverses gains and resistance now about US$ 0.7580/0.7600 probably now contains, yielding sell-off toward US$0.7475 en route to US$0.7400 level."
ANDY HART, COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS
EUR/USD: "Our targets are $1.3225 then $1.3085/1.3140 (15 month uptrend, 200 day moving average and Fibonacci retracement). Rallies are expected to find good interim
resistance at $1.3410 and remain contained by $1.3460 to leave the markets directly offered."
USD/CHF: "USD/CHF has severed its 15 month downtrend at 1.2312, the break is significant as it implies that the market is at last breaking higher from a sideways range that has dominated the market over the past year. We look for initial gains towards 1.2570/80, the 2007 peak and beyond there target the 1.2720/4 year downtrend."
GBP/USD: "The move lower on Friday was damaging, it saw the market break below the 100 day moving average at $1.9702 for the first time in 3 months. It has also broken below its 50 percent retracement at $1.9660 and we start this week focussing on underlying support. Initial support lies at $1.9550/22 (2004 high) and then $1.9420/10, the one year uptrend. These are now exposed, failure will target 1.9180/2007 low."
USD/JPY: "Despite a decent rebound, the market has yet to clear the 122.17/2007 yen peak and the risk is that the market will again fail there near term/consolidate further.
Although we remain unable to rule out a deeper retracement towards the 120.22 / 3 month uptrend - this is expected to hold the downside and provoke recovery. Longer term our positive bias is maintained and we favour an eventual erosion of the 122.17
recent high. Above 122.17 would introduce scope to 125.40/70.
TECHNICAL RESEARCH TEAM, SEB
USD/JPY: "Friday's key day reversal clearly states that the yearly high, 122.20 yen, is about to be passed. We expect to find firm bids in the 121.40/50-area and recommend joining them (with a stop below 120.95). A break of 122.20 should follow, highlighting 124/125."
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