UBS

GBP USD extends gains towards 2.0000.

EUR USD We continue to favour further downside in EURUSD. A sustained break of last Friday's 1.3392 new trend low would open the door for a run at 1.3371, the 0.382 retracement of 1.2865-1.3683. Meanwhile, initial resistance is around 1.3521, last Tuesday's reaction high.

USD CHF's recent corrective pullback bottomed last Tuesday at 1.2198, with the recovery from there likely to push to a new trend high above 1.2332 and test resistance from 1.2353 to 1.2357. This zone marks the 0.618 retracement of the 1.2575-1.1994 decline and the March 9 reaction high, respectively.

GBP USD clears resistance at the 1.9901 May 29 high and a sustained move above this level would open up scope towards 2.0000, May 9 high ahead of 2.0076, May 1 high. Beneath 1.9812 Monday's low would jeopardize the preferred case for a run below the 1.9733 to 1.9714 congestion area, which would open the door toward the 1.9677 trend low.

USD JPY bull trend remains intact with the focus on the January-February 122.10 to 122.20 double top. Not far off is 122.38, the 0.618 of 135.18-101.67 big decline. The 120.85 May 25 low marks initial support for now.

AUD USD Our model reading for AUDUSD has turned from neutral to positive, a sign that the recovery from last week's 0.8163 low has more potential. Initial resistance is at the 0.8354 May 13 high. A move above there would clear the way for an eventual move above the 0.8396 April 18 high.

USD CAD remains heavy and a break of last Thursday's 1.0665 low leaves little support till 1.0496. There the large decline from the 1.4005 May 2004 high would equal the distance travelled in the 1.6190-1.2681 preceding decline. Initial resistance is around 1.0712.

EUR GBP retains bearish bias.

EUR CHF has a positive model reading today, but only a sustained push above 1.6549 would give us price proof of a resuming bull trend. This level marks the 0.618 retracement of the 1.6614-1.6443 decline, and a move above it would expose the 1.6614 trend high from May 20.

EUR JPY The bull trend in EURJPY remains intact, and only a break of initial support at 162.95 would point to a noteworthy correction taking hold. Until then, our focus will remain on the 165.63 broad-picture Elliott wave target.

EUR GBP's recent decline ran out of steam after pushing to within seven pips of the early-April 0.6747 range bottom. But only a move above 0.6819 (0.618 of 0.6858-0.6755) would shift focus to the 0.6858 to 0.6868 range top.


COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

EUR/USD: "The sideways consolidation continues near term within contracting ranges bordered by $1.3527 (6 week downtrend) and $1.3360 (the 8 month uptrend). As we have seen a recent failure to break the $1.3665/80 resistance, we are concerned that the market has charted an interim top and for now, while rallies are capped by $1.3530 we will assiume that trendline support is exposed. Failure here would target $1.3100 enroute to the $1.2820/5 year uptrend.

USD/JPY: "Has failed on its initial attempt at the 122.17/2007 yen peak. Immediate upside pressure is maintained while above the 2 month uptrend at 121.53 today. Technical indicators have turned more neutral. Failure to hold 121.50 would introduce scope for a pullback towards the 119.93/65 band (this is the location of the 4 month uptrend at the 100 day moving average). This is expected to hold the downside and rovoke recovery. Above 122.17 would introduce scope to 125.40/70."

USD/CHF: "Has seen yet another rejection from its 2 year downtrend at 1.2321 currently and very near term the market is vulnerable to stabs down to 1.2165/25 and possibly 1.2080/30, these are expected to be relatively short lived and we would expect the 1.2080/30 zone to act as a short term floor for the market."

EUR/GBP: "Easing lower in its medium term range and while capped by minor resistance at 68.10/20 pence, a slight downside bias will persist for a slide back to long term moving averages at 67.54/40 pence, we again look for these to hold the downside. Interim resistance lies at 68.10/20 pence (minor Fibonacci retracements) and the market will need to regain these levels to reassert upside pressure in the range.

GBP/USD: "Has seen a minor breach of key resistance at $1.9905 (50 percent retracement of recent move lower). This was enough to stop out our short positions and imply some further near term strength. We continue to suspect that the $2.0135/April peak was an interim peak for the market, however following the break above $1.9905, a more protracted process of `topping out' looks likely. We would allow for forays into the $2.0000/35 band, however we suspect that these will be
relatively short lived."


JP MORGAN

EUR/USD: "We need to break up through channel resistance at $1.3525 to get more excited here."

USD/JPY: "The JPY remains the core under performer, with USDJPY actually grinding up and putting more pressure on the 122/122.20 region, but its the crosses that benefit the most with the commodity currencies still leading the way."

GBP/USD: "Cable (is) up towards key resistance around 1.9950. These levels need to break to add confirmation of a further fall (for the dollar) otherwise the risk of a larger ange remains."