UBS

USD CAD weakens further towards 1.0496.

EUR USD Last Tuesday's 1.3521 corrective high is forcing a return of the bear trend in EURUSD. A sustained break of last Friday's 1.3392 new trend low would open the door for a run at 1.3371, the 0.382 retracement of 1.2865-1.3683. Mild initial resistance is around 1.3479, last Thursday's reaction high.

USD CHF's recent corrective pullback bottomed last Tuesday at 1.2198, with the recovery from there likely to push to a new trend high above 1.2334 and test resistance from 1.2353 to 1.2357. This zone marks the 0.618 retracement of the 1.2575-1.1994 decline and the March 9 reaction high, respectively.

GBP USD's recent bounce from last Wednesday's 1.9733 low has held below the 1.9832 small reaction high from the previous session. Only a move above this week's 1.9901 would jeopardize the preferred case for a run below the 1.9733 to 1.9714 congestion area, which would open the door toward the 1.9677 trend low.

USD JPY bull trend remains intact with the focus on the January-February 122.10 to 122.20 double top. Not far off is 122.38, the 0.618 of 135.18-101.67 big decline. May 25 low at 120.85 low marks support.

AUD USD Given the persistent choppy action since mid-April, it's no wonder our model reading for AUDUSD is neutral. The recent move above 0.8272 to 0.8273 congestive resistance paves the way for a run at the 0.8353 mid-May high. But 0.8396 and 0.8163 mark the boundaries of the big trading range; only a move beyond one of this levels would likely spark a sustainable trend.

USD CAD remains heavy and a break of last Thursday's 1.0665 low would leave little support till 1.0496. There the large decline from the 1.4005 May 2004 high would equal the distance travelled in the 1.6190-1.2681 preceding decline. Keep an eye on 1.0761 last Wednesday's high; a break could spark a notable corrective recovery.

EUR JPY focuses at 165.63. The recent slide from 1.6614. So far the setback in EURJPY 164.31 from last Tuesday has been unable to break congestive support in the 163.04 to 162.95 area. This keeps the underlying bull trend intact and our focus on 165.63 broad-picture Elliott wave target.

EUR CHF has room towards support at the 1.6414 May 11 low. Only a move above 1.6551, May 23 high would confirm a resumption of the broader bullish trend.

EUR GBP's recent decline has run out of steam after pushing to within seven pips of the early-April 0.6747 range bottom. But only a move above 0.6819 (0.618 of 0.6858-0.6755) would shift focus to the 0.6858 to 0.6868 range top.

COMMERZBANK

EUR/USD: "We view the sideways consolidation evident over the past eight trading days as a bearish consolidation. This view will be maintained, while rallies are capped by the downtrend at $1.3533. We continue to target the $1.3354/7 month uptrend but intraday we would allow for further ranging."

USD/JPY: "USD/JPY is poised to challenge the 122.17 yen 2007 peak. Technical indicators are looking slightly more positive and immediate upside pressure is maintained while above the two-month uptrend at 121.41 today. So not much room to anoevre and we will find out in the next couple of days if this high will give way or not. With technical indicators more positive the risks are slightly skewed for an upside break."

USD/CHF: "Last week USD/CHF executed a 38.2 percent retracement (1.2200) and consolidated sideways. It starts this week with the focus on the 2 year downtrend, urrently at 1.2323 francs. Whilst we remain unable to rule out further stabs down to 1.2165/25 and possibly 1.2080/30, these are expected to be relately shortlived."

EUR/GBP: "EUR/GBP has recently bounced just ahead of the long term moving averages at 67.52/40 pence, and remains range bound. So far the market has not managed to reassert upside pressure in the range and while capped by 68.20, the near term risk this week will be for a slide back to these moving average supports. We again look for these to hold the downside."

GBP/USD: "Last week GBP/USD again stalled at key resistance at $1.9905 (50 percent retracement of recent move lower). The market this week is sidelined between here and support at $1.9696/60 (100 day moving average, recent low and Fibonacci retracement). While capped by $1.9905, near term risks remain on the downside."

EUR/JPY: "Has spent several weeks now consolidating at the 164.05/25 yen major target area. It continues to push hard into major resistance at 164.05/25. We are less wary of failure here but only a close above 164.25 will convince us that the
market is capable of further strength currently."