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Depth Analysis 03.07.2007

Headlines
: Will BOJ raise its interest rates?

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said on Tuesday the central bank had no preset schedule on the pace of interest rate adjustments, reiterating these moves would depend on improvements in the economy and prices.
The BOJ has left monetary policy steady since lifting rates to 0.5 percent in February, its first move since last July.
The central bank is widely expected to sit tight at its policy board meeting next week but to raise rates to a 12-year high of 0.75 percent in August.

The following technical analysis gives us a detailed lookout on what is expected to happen to USD/JPY

The buying point is at 122.38; triggered by strong support at 122.24 and the continuation of an uptrend.

- Fibonacci retracement 23.6% is the take profit at 122.91
- Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% represents the stop loss at 121.85

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the crossing of the two moving averages below the zero line, the shorter term moving average is faster than the long term and is pointing upwards. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI, we can determine that it is a bullish market and it is on an uptrend.

We have two stochastic lines crossing each other and break the 20% line. We should always look at the trend line; and in this example it is a clear uptrend. For the momentum oscillator we have to concentrate at the zero line and the trend of the oscillator as we see on the graph is on an uptrend. Most of the indicators show us the strength of the US dollar against the Japanese Yen and the continuation of the uptrend.


* The following analysis is for information only; Finotec is not responsible for any
decisions or misinterpretations based on the given text.

By Finotec’s professional analyst,
Tony B.

dealingdesk@finotec.com


 





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Forex Review 03.07.2007
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Forex Review 29.06.2007
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