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Finotec News Archive - May 09 2008

Dollar on a dipping slope again and fears of high inflation

The U.S. trade deficit will have probably narrowed in March as a weaker dollar boosted exports of machinery and food, economists said ahead of a government report today which comes out at 12:30pm GMT.

Tammy Wall
09 May 2008

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	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	GBP/USD	USD/CHF
Resistance	1.5613 1.5595 1.5520	104.95 104.50 103.65	1.9700 1.9620 1.9570	1.0695 1.0625 1.0540
Support	1.5390 1.5315 1.5285	102.95 102.70 102.25	1.9495 1.9430 1.9410	1.0460 1.0430 1.0335

The U.S. trade deficit will have probably narrowed in March as a weaker dollar boosted exports of machinery and food, economists said ahead of a government report today which comes out at 12:30pm GMT. The trade balance Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Faster growth overseas and a dollar that has lost a quarter of its value in six years are boosting demand for American-made products, while slower U.S. consumer and business spending is limiting imports. An improvement in the trade gap may also come from slowing imports as consumers, facing falling home values and rising fuel bills, restrain spending. U.S. companies are also investing less in foreign-made equipment as concern grows that consumer demand will continue to weaken.

A smaller gap may help the U.S. avert a deeper economic downturn as the housing market continues to slump. ``Exports are one of the points of strength,'' said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. ``If we avoid a quarter of negative growth, it will largely be due to trade.'' Cisco Systems Inc., the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, is among the companies benefiting from gains abroad. The San Jose, California-based company posted sales growth of 10 percent in the third quarter, even as U.S. sales grew only 5 percent.

German whole sale price Index came in at 0.6% from an expected 0.5% which boosted the Euro somewhat this morning, EUR/USD currently trading at $1.5474 as of 8:11am GMT. The pound erased its gains against the dollar and extended declines versus the euro. The U.K. currency weakened to $1.9516 as of 6:30 am GMT, from $1.9541 yesterday. It slid to 79.12 pence per euro, from 78.78 pence.

Finotec Analysis Team
09 May 2008

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Today's Economic Events

Time	Event	Currency	Period	Previous	Forecast	Actual
12:30	Trade Balance	CAD	Mar	4.9B	4.5B	5.5B
Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation's currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.
12:30	Trade Balance	USD	Mar	-62.32B	-61.3B	-58.2B
Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation's currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.
11:00	Employment Change	CAD	Apr	14.6K	10.0K	19.2K
Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation\'s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.
11:00	Unemployment Rate	CAD	Apr	6.0%	6.0%	6.1%
Measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Working people tend to spend more, and consumer spending is a major driver of the economy. However, unemployment usually draws little attention because traders view it as a lagging indicator.

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Leading Indicators m/m(JPY)	04.07.2008 05:00
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