Finotec News Archive - March 19 2008

Dollar slides as Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points

US Federal Reserve cut borrowing rates by 75 basis points to 2.25%

Raj Ratna
19 March 2008

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EUR/USDUSD/JPYGBP/USDUSD/CHF

Resistance
1.6000
1.5830
1.5830
101.45
101.10
99.80
2.0300
2.0270
2.0200
1.0350
1.0170
1.0135

Support
1.5650
1.5600
1.5525
99.80
97.85
96.85
2.0070
2.0000
1.9945
0.9790
0.9735
0.9640

The dollar fell against the Euro, losing most of yesterday’s gains, as the US Federal Reserve cut borrowing rates by 75 basis points to 2.25%. The FOMC statement indicated the Fed are mainly concerned about inflation and expects the financial markets to remain under considerable stress. Euro gains were supported by speculation the worst U.S. housing slump in twenty five years will amass credit-market losses.

The dollar continued its slide against the euro and the yen. The common European currency reached highs near $1.5724 8:37GMT, from $1.5625 yesterday. Technical analysis shows buy a bounce near $1.5615. Japanese yen has traded below 99.00 yesterday and was last seen trading near 98.53, the lowest level in twelve years. Market strategy is to sell a failure to break near 100.45.

European Central Bank injected twenty five billion euro yesterday to stimulate the interbank market. This similar strategy was employed by the Bank of England when it offered to inject 5 billion pounds into the money markets. As expected the sterling dropped slightly against the dollar afterwards.

US producer prices rose 0.3% in February yesterday along with expectations. Excluding food and energy, PPI rose by 0.5%, the most since November 2006. New construction on single-family homes fell by 6.7% in February on family homes. Building permits, a leading indicator of construction, fell 7.8% in February. It was the biggest monthly decline in 13 years. US sharemarkets climbed on Tuesday following better than expected results from Goldman Sachs and Lehman brothers.

Ahead today, the market will be focused on US crude oil inventories report. We are also expecting a tighter euro trade balance, placing more downward pressure on the dollar. In the UK, monetary policy minutes and unemployment figures are released.

Finotec Analysis Team
19 March 2008

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Today's Economic Events





Time Event Currency Period Previous Forecast Significance Actual
14:30Crude Oil InventoriesUSD6.2Mna20.2minformation
14:30Crude Oil InventoriesUSD6.2Mna20.2minformation
12:30Wholesale Sales m/mCADJan-2.6%1.0%32.6%information
10:00Trade BalanceEURJan-1.8b-0.5b2-2.0binformation
09:30MPC Meeting MinutesGBP8-1 cut8-1 hld47-2 hldinformation
09:30Claimant Count ChangeGBPFeb-10.8K-5.0k3-2.8kinformation
09:30Unemployment RateGBPJan5.2%5.2%25.2%information
09:00Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/yGBPJan3.8%3.8%23.7%information

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